Lebanese hold their breath as mediators try to avert all-out war

The Middle East is in turmoil. International diplomacy is in full swing. And for the first time, many in Israel, Lebanon and Iran have something in common—a war of nerves.

They were anxious and waiting for what might happen next. It felt like the whole area was holding its breath.

Is this a slide toward all-out regional war? Can a ceasefire be fought from the ruins of Gaza? How will Iran and its proxy militia Hezbollah retaliate against Israel for the repeated assassinations in Beirut and Tehran? Will they listen to calls for restraint?

In Lebanon, the sweltering summer heat adds another layer of anxiety.

Sonic booms disrupt traffic noise in Beirut as Israeli fighter jets break the sound barrier in the skies.

Many foreigners have left, following the advice of their governments. Many Lebanese have also fled.

Others are impossible to look away from—like the 30-year-old chef at a trendy cafe (there are too many of them in Beirut to count). She is tattooed and outspoken but prefers not to be named.

“Living in Beirut is like being in a toxic relationship that you can’t get out of,” she told me.

“I am emotionally attached. I have family abroad, and I could leave, but I don’t want to. We live day by day. And we joke about the situation.”

Soon after, she admitted that the business was struggling and she was suffering from post-traumatic stress disorder. “It was like a cold war for us,” she said. She was expecting a hotter war but hoped it would be short.

International mediators are crisscrossing the region, working overtime to prevent a wider conflict, including US special envoy Amos Hochstein.

“We still believe that a diplomatic solution is possible, because we still believe that no one really wants a full-scale war between Lebanon and Israel,” he said.

He spoke in Beirut on Wednesday, after meeting a close Hezbollah ally, Parliament Speaker Nabih Berry.

Asked by a reporter if war could be avoided, Mr Hochstein replied: “I hope so, I believe so.” But he added that the more time passes, the greater the chance of accidents and mistakes.

The last time Israel and Hezbollah fought, in 2006, it lasted six weeks and caused extensive damage and loss of life in Lebanon. More than 1,000 Lebanese civilians were killed, along with 200 Hezbollah fighters. Of the 160 Israelis killed, most were soldiers.

All sides agreed that a new war would cause much more death and destruction.

And many in Lebanon agree that the country cannot afford it. The economy is paralyzed, and the political system is dysfunctional. The government can’t even keep the electricity running.

“I hope there will be no war,” said Hiba Maslkhi. “Lebanon will not be able to cope.”

We met the 35-year-old woman in a tracksuit on a steep street on Beirut’s waterfront. She was focused on the Mediterranean, fishing rod in hand.

“I hope the wiser people will prevail and we can control the escalation so things don’t get out of control,” she said.

She takes every sonic boom personally. “If I hear a boom, I start to panic, and I wonder if they [Israeli forces] attacked near my house or bombed the airport.”

Hiba, who makes a living selling perfume, said Lebanon had suffered enough.

“Ten months is a long time for us to be psychologically destroyed, hiding in our homes,” she said. “We were afraid to start a business to make money because we thought war might be coming.”

The current round of conflict here began last October when Hamas gunmen stormed out of Gaza and killed some 1,200 people in southern Israel, most of them civilians.

Hezbollah soon joined in, firing into Israel from Lebanon. The Shia Muslim militant group and political party – classified as a terrorist organisation by Britain and the United States – said it was acting in support of the Palestinian people.

Since October, Hezbollah and Israel have been fighting, sending tens of thousands of people fleeing on both sides of their shared border and killing more than 500 people in Lebanon, most of them militants. Israeli officials say 40 people have been killed there – 26 of them soldiers.

Fears of a wider conflict were raised in late July, when an Israeli airstrike in Beirut killed a senior Hezbollah commander.

Israel blames him for the killing of 12 children in a missile attack on the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights in Syria.

A full-scale war has broken out in Gaza, where Israel has killed nearly 40,000 Palestinians according to the latest figures from the Hamas-run health ministry – data the World Health Organization considers reliable.

Gaza is Ayman Sakr’s main concern. He is fishing with Heba, but their views are far apart.

The 50-year-old taxi driver insisted that if all-out war came, Lebanon would handle it. “There are some concerns, but we can handle it,” he told us. “We will defend ourselves in the end. If we die, it’s okay.”

He was quick to pay tribute to the hundreds of Hezbollah fighters killed by Israel, as well as to the militant group’s leader.

“I salute the resistance and the martyrs from the bottom of my heart,” he said, “and I salute Hassan Nasrallah, who made us and all Arabs proud. Everyone is worried about Israel, but what about the 39,000 people that Israel killed?”

Ayman, a father of five, said the horrors in Gaza were undeniable, but were being ignored.

“The whole world watches children, women and old people being massacred every day in front of cameras and no one notices,” he said. “People’s children are being killed right before their eyes. Where is the world? Those who remain silent are complicit.”

Hiba still hopes that all-out war can be avoided.

“No one has the right to kill anyone,” she said, “not organizations, not parties, and not militias. I hope the new generation will be wiser than the previous one.”