Paul Kagame seeks fourth term as president

Rwandan President Paul Kagame, feared and admired in equal measure, is seeking to extend his 24-year rule in an election that analysts say he will win by a landslide.

He has dominated every election since becoming president in 2000, winning more than 90% of the vote. In 2017, he won with a staggering 99% in an election that was criticized by human rights groups.

Mr Kagame, 66, is accused of allowing no real opposition and ruthlessly targeting his critics, even abroad.

He faces the only two candidates allowed to run – the others are barred by the state-run election commission.

Mr Kagame was silent as he cast his vote, not speaking to reporters.

President Kagame has been at the helm of Rwandan politics since his rebel forces took power at the end of the 1994 genocide that killed an estimated 800,000 Tutsis and moderate Hutus.

Since then, he has been praised for overseeing the country’s strong economic recovery and unifying the country.

“Thirty years ago, Rwanda was essentially wiped out – but thanks in part to the leadership of Kagame and his ruling party, Rwanda has built stability,” Dr Felix Ndahinda, a scholar of the Great Lakes region, told the BBC.

Mr Kagame has consistently defended Rwanda’s human rights record, saying his country respects political freedoms.

But one analyst told the BBC the election was a “formality”.

According to the election agency, about nine million people are registered to vote and at least two million are first-time voters.

The provisional winner will be announced Tuesday morning.

Voters will elect the president and 53 members of the House of Representatives on Monday, while another 27 members will be elected the following day.

“I’m so excited to vote for the first time, I can’t wait,” Sylvia Mutoni told the BBC.

For most young people in Rwanda, Mr Kagame is the only leader they have ever known.

Even while serving as vice president and defense minister from 1994 to 2000, he remained the country’s de facto leader and has held the presidency since 2000.

Two opposition candidates – Frank Habineza, of the Democratic Green Party, and independent candidate Philippe Mpayimana – both ran in 2017, where they won more than 1% of the vote.

But they were not deterred.

Mr Habineza cast his vote in the capital Kigali on Monday morning and told reporters the election was “a good expression of democracy in our country”.

He said he hoped his party could win 20 seats in parliament – 10 times the number of seats his party won in the 2017 election.

“I believe democracy is a process,” he told the BBC’s Focus on Africa podcast ahead of the election.

“People are still afraid to express their opinions. I am fighting for freedom of speech, freedom of the press,” he said.

And some Rwandans are listening. One voter told the BBC he would not vote for the incumbent president.

Celestin Mutuyeyezu, 28, had supported Mr Kagame, but this election was swayed by Mr Habineza.

“He said some great things about fighting unemployment and he convinced me,” he said.

But defeating President Kagame could be difficult.

Diane Rwigara, an outspoken critic of the president, was barred from running. She was also disqualified in 2017.

“Rwanda is portrayed as a country with a developing economy. But in reality, things are different. People lack the basic necessities of life, food, water, shelter,” she told the BBC.

The election commission said she failed to provide valid documents.

Although the country still struggles with high youth unemployment, it is one of the fastest growing economies in Africa.

Mr Kagame is credited with Rwanda’s remarkable economic transformation and stability over the past three decades.

Rwanda is world famous for its clean capital and has the highest percentage of female parliamentarians in the world, 61%.

In their book Rwanda, Inc., American authors Patricia Crisafulli and Andrea Redmond describe Mr. Kagame as more of a corporate executive than a political leader because of his “drive for excellence” in all areas of the country.

He is also a wise politician.

Although often critical of the West, he has tried to cultivate useful allies – for example by working with the UK on a now-canceled plan to deport asylum seekers to Rwanda.

Rwanda is also projecting its soft power on the international stage by building its appeal through sports, culture and entertainment.

The small East African country is where the African Basketball Cup is heldis a partnership with the NBA. It hosted the Commonwealth Heads of Government Meeting in 2022 and international stars such as Kendrick Lamar played there..

But Mr Kagame’s diplomacy also has a very tough side.

The election comes days after a United Nations report said there was about 4,000 Rwandan troops in neighboring Democratic Republic of Congowhere they were accused of supporting the M23 rebel group.

Rwanda did not deny the allegations and told the BBC that the government of the Democratic Republic of Congo lacked the political will to resolve the crisis in the country’s mineral-rich east, which has seen decades of unrest.

During his election campaign, Mr Kagame promised to protect Rwanda from “external aggression” amid tensions with neighbours the Democratic Republic of Congo and Burundi.