Putin is counting on Trump’s victory to build his new world order

I don’t know any time in American history Donald Trump imagine him saying, “Make America great again.” He has never given a clear answer in any speech or interview. But I know exactly which moment Vladimir Putin imagined in his own vision the greatness of Russia. It was February 1945, when Stalin, Roosevelt and Churchill divided the world in Crimea.

It was three months before Nazi Germany surrendered, but it was clear that the Allies had won. To determine what the world would be like after the defeat of the Third Reich, the US president, British prime minister and Soviet leader went to the city of Yalta, a resort in Crimea. Stalin got everything he wanted: He convinced his then-allies that he should have his own “sphere of influence,” which included all of Eastern Europe—Poland, Hungary, Bulgaria, Romania, Former Czechoslovakia and former Yugoslavia. The leaders also established the United Nations Security Council, where they secured permanent membership for their countries.

This structure existed for the next 45 years, practically collapsing with the Soviet Union. Putin once called the collapse of the Eastern Bloc “the biggest geopolitical disaster of the 20th century”. Throughout his presidency, Putin has repeatedly said that the world needs a “new Yalta.” If the old world order no longer works, a new one must be created.

He started talking about this in 2007 in his famous Munich speech in which he first challenged the US-dominated unipolar world order and has repeated the proposal many times since then, including in his 2015 United Nations speech in Davos. in 2021, and in his speeches to the Russian parliament almost every year.

But for a new Yalta, Putin needs the right partners, including an American president who agrees to divide the world with him.

Since Soviet times, there has been a stereotype in the Kremlin: Negotiating with Republicans is easier than with Democrats. This originated from the détente between the Soviet Union and the United States during the Nixon and Ford administrations; Jimmy Carter, thinking has placed too much emphasis on human rights. Kremlin officials still believe that Republicans are constructive partners, while Democrats are hypocrites pretending to be saints.

At first, Putin considered Mr. George W. Bush a suitable partner—after all, Bush even “looked into the man’s eyes” and “could understand his soul.” But after 2004, when the United States supported the Orange Revolution in Ukraine and other “color revolutions” in the former Soviet Union, Putin began to fear that Bush wanted to overthrow him too. Moreover, the Kremlin sincerely believes that Bush wants to become a world military dictator. Putin was surprised when, after Hurricane Katrina, Bush’s approval ratings plummeted and he did not cling to power, did not try to change the Constitution, did not run for a third term – things that he himself Putin will be willing to do anything to gain power.

Putin has never been trusted Barack Obama. He has always believed that when American politicians talk about values ​​it is all hypocrisy, covering up some cunning, certainly anti-Russian plans. In 2013, Putin watched the (fictional) series Dealer, and he took it as proof that he was right. All his expectations and fears were confirmed: Indeed, American politicians are cynical, cruel and deceitful. He just needs to wait for the right person to take power.

Back in 2011 and 2012, Putin believed that the mass protests against his third term were organized and financed under the direction of the Foreign Ministry. Hillary Clinton. So in 2016, he had no doubts. He views the Democratic candidate as a personal enemy.

From the moment Trump was elected, from Yalta has become one of the favorites of Kremlin officials. They were confident that Trump was the right person to agree to such a spectacle. This does not mean that the Russian authorities consider Trump “their puppet” – the Kremlin has never taken any measures to influence him. Putin simply believes that Trump is morally close and understandable to him: a cynic who also thinks that money solves everything.