Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s speech stirs anti-Israel sentiment in Türkiye

An oversized billboard erected on a main highway into the Turkish capital Ankara depicts Benjamin Netanyahu as a pig next to a red swastika and the words: “Israel kills babies.”

Hundreds of miles away in Istanbul, a shop sign warned Israel, as well as the United States and Europe, that they would “drown in your blood,” while protesters outside the city’s historic Egyptian spice market held up signs calling for the “defeat” of the NATO alliance of which Turkey is a member.

Criticism of Israel and the West is not unusual in Türkiye, but the sentiment has been growing as the war in Gaza rages, fueled by the increasingly bellicose tone of the country’s leader Recep Tayyip Erdoğan.

In recent months, the Turkish president has stepped up his condemnation of Israel and the Gaza offensive, in contrast to his measured tone in the days following the Hamas attack on October 7. The shift coincides with a decline in his popularity amid a protracted economic crisis.

Erdoğan has labeled Israel a “terrorist state” that threatens “all of humanity”, called Netanyahu a “genocidal murderer” and “the Hitler of our times”, and hinted that his army could enter Israel to protect Palestinians.

He also criticized Israel’s Western backers, criticizing US lawmakers for welcoming Netanyahu with open arms when he addressed Congress in July.

“Just as the names of those who applauded Hitler’s genocidal speech at the Nazi Reichstag 85 years ago have gone down in history with shame, those who stood up to applaud Hitler Netanyahu’s lies will not be able to wash the black stain off their hands,” Erdoğan said.

In a sign of rising tensions, more than a dozen members of the Turkish nationalist Youth League were arrested by Turkish authorities this week after they attacked two U.S. Marines on shore leave in Izmir, one of Turkey’s most western-leaning cities.

Erdoğan has been careful to avoid crossing any lines with the United States, and diplomats say relations between the NATO allies remain constructive, especially after Washington agreed to sell Turkey billions of dollars worth of F-16 jets earlier this year.

However, the Turkish president has followed up on his harsh rhetoric against Israel.

Ankara has imposed a trade embargo on Israel, sought to join South Africa’s lawsuit in The Hague accusing the country of genocide and invited Palestinian President Mahmoud Abbas to address parliament.

Ankara, which has long sheltered Hamas’ political activities, has also warmly welcomed the militant group, with Erdoğan hosting the late Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in April and likening the group to “liberators” in Turkey’s war of independence a century ago.

Turkish newspapers and television stations, most of them government-affiliated, have amplified Erdoğan’s rhetoric with harsh criticism of Israel and its supporters. The president’s top lieutenants have also joined in the fray, highlighting how Erdoğan’s sentiments are percolating through Turkey’s bureaucracy.

Salih Bıçakcı, a research fellow at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs, said the latest move was part of an “up-and-down” relationship between Israel and Türkiye that dates back to the country’s founding.

Türkiye was the first Muslim country to recognize Israel after its founding in 1948, but the two countries have often been at odds. Ankara joined Arab calls for Israel to relinquish territory it captured in the 1967 Six-Day War, and later downgraded diplomatic relations after Israel annexed East Jerusalem and declared the city its “eternal, indivisible capital.” Turkey was also one of the first countries to recognize Palestine as an independent state.

However, Erdoğan, who came to power at the turn of the millennium rooted in political Islam, has also sought to balance widespread support within Turkey for the Palestinian cause with the economic, trade and tourism opportunities from strengthening ties with Israel.

According to Israeli customs data, bilateral trade between Israel and Türkiye peaked at $9.1 billion in 2022, up from $2.6 billion in 2009. Turkish businesses also operate in Israel, with Istanbul-based Zorlu Energy owning a 25% stake in a major Israeli power plant. Turkey also welcomed nearly 800,000 Israeli tourists in 2023, according to Tourism Ministry data.

Ankara had sought to strengthen ties with Israel before the October 7 attack. The two countries restored full diplomatic relations in 2022 after a four-year dispute over the killing of protesters in Gaza. Erdoğan met Netanyahu for the first time in September 2023 at a meeting of the United Nations General Assembly.

“[Erdoğan] “We are ready to cooperate and cultivate that relationship with Israel and have been doing so for a long time,” Bıçakcı said, noting that some members of the president’s ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP) “have always been anti-Israel.”

The Turkish president’s strident stance comes amid falling domestic approval ratings due to the country’s difficult economic situation.

An economic recovery program launched after Erdoğan was re-elected in May 2023 has helped attract foreign investors, but many Turks are struggling with years of hyperinflation. There are also growing signs that Turkey’s previously rapid growth is slowing, as the government moves away from populist policies that helped cushion the impact of high prices.

According to a July survey by Ankara-based Metropoll, less than a fifth of voters would support the AKP if new parliamentary elections were called, the lowest level since Erdoğan co-founded the AKP in 2002.

Emre Peker at political risk consultancy Eurasia Group pointed out the connection between the issues. “Given the damage Turkey’s economic rebalancing has done to local households and businesses, not to mention the president’s dismal approval ratings, Erdoğan will be primarily interested in foreign policy interventions that help him domestically,” he said.

Murat Somer, a professor of political science at Özyeğin University in Istanbul, said the president’s speech would particularly appeal to the Islamist wing of his AKP party.

“Throughout the AKP’s rule, there has been a constant… redefinition of politics,” Somer said. “Where the AKP sees advantages and where it can disarm the domestic political opposition.”

This could help blunt the impact of criticism of Erdoğan from the New Islamist Welfare Party, which won several AKP cities in March elections with a platform that heavily criticized the government’s stance on Gaza.

Analysts also believe that, given the significant fluctuations in Israel-Türkiye relations over the years and Erdoğan’s typically pragmatic approach to foreign affairs, it is likely that warmer relations between the two countries will be restored after the Gaza conflict ends.

For now, Peker warns, “opportunistic foreign policies and any diplomatic victories… are unlikely to significantly improve Erdoğan and the AKP’s record-low poll numbers.

“That requires a tangible change in voters’ daily lives.”