Russian soldiers returning to the country are causing higher crime

According to data from Russia’s Supreme Court, crimes committed by military personnel not related to war increased by more than 20% last year. Although the overall numbers remain small and many returning service members do not commit crimes, the number of violent crimes as well as thefts and drug-related violations has skyrocketed.

These figures do not include crimes involving tens of thousands of prisoners released from prison to fight in the war under a program set up by the late Wagner mercenary leader Yevgeny Prigozhin. Those who survived six months at the front were able to receive amnesty from President Vladimir Putin and return to Russia as free men.

In prison, “they are treated as if ‘we are nothing,’ then things get even worse ahead,” said the Kazan-based sociologist Iskender Yasaveev. “The experience they carry is a trauma that will manifest for decades.”

Sociologists have long noted that crime level typically increases after military conflicts end, and researchers have looked at a variety of possible causes, from social disruption to trauma faced by soldiers. Russia is unlikely to buck that trend after Putin ordered an offensive in February 2022, sparking Europe’s biggest conflict since World War II. The return of prisoners who fought for Wagner is offering an early signal of what could happen when hundreds of thousands of men brutalized in the war return to civilian life.

While low-level crimes are down, the number of murders and sex crimes, especially against children, has remained steady over the past two years. According to Bloomberg calculations based on Supreme Court data, indecent assaults against minors have increased 62% compared to the prewar period.

The return of Wagner recruits to Russia shocked people in cities and villages, who discovered men they thought were serving long prison sentences living with them. People convicted of murder, and even cannibalisticwere among those pardoned.

Before his death in a plane crash after leading a failed mutiny against the leadership of the Ministry of Defense last June, Prigozhin announced that 32,000 prisoners he recruited had returned to Russia. after war.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov responded to widespread public discontent by speak reporters in November that criminals pardoned by Putin were “atoning for their crimes on the battlefield with blood.”

However, one law took effect in March quietly eliminated the right to parole after six months of service, forcing participating criminals to remain in the military until the war ended, just like everyone else conscripted.

However, they returned, often by deserting. Supreme Court data shows military-related crimes quadrupled to 4,409 in 2023 compared to 2021.

One deserter, Artyom, said he fled after half his attacking army was killed over four months in Ukraine. The 34-year-old man, who asked to remain anonymous, joined the army to escape harsh treatment at the prison complex where he was serving a sentence for drug trafficking. No one, he said, told him the service was indefinite.

The law ending amnesty also allows the Department of Defense to employ not only convicted persons but also pretrial detainees. Russia Behind Bars, a prisoners’ rights group, estimates that a total of 175,000 former prisoners were sent to fight on the battlefield.

Alex Iskov, a Russia economist at Bloomberg Economics, said the postwar crime surge could cost Russia up to 0.6% of its gross domestic product. Besides the direct costs to life and property, the state will face higher spending on welfare and security, especially on the police, he said.

“From the Franco-Prussian War to the Global War on Terror, crime rates dropped early in the war and rose sharply afterward. It is difficult for Russia to find a way out of this model. Post-war crime costs could be as low as 0.2% of gross domestic product if the conflict is resolved by 2024 to as high as 0.6% of GDP if the conflict continues for another five years and about 3 million Russians had to participate in the fighting. The full cost of the post-war increase in crime is likely to be significantly higher,” Iskov said.

Anxious to avoid a repeat of the September 2022 conscription of 300,000 reservists that made the public nervous about war, the Kremlin is instead relying on generous payments to persuade men to join army. Contract soldiers are offered a monthly payment of 204,000 rubles ($2,300) in addition to a signing bonus that can reach up to 1 million rubles.

That contributed to a short-term decrease in crime, especially in Russia’s provinces. According to estimates by Bloomberg Economics, recorded crime rates are three times higher in areas with high rates of military recruitment, compared to areas with only moderate levels.

Sociologist and crime researcher Ekaterina Khodzhaeva said: “Economic crimes such as theft and robbery that are linked to poverty have decreased because the war has poured money into the poorest areas and parts of the country. poorest population”.

Russian courts last year handled nearly 62,000 fewer cases than in 2021, and the number of people convicted fell by 2%. Police numbers also fell in many areas, suggesting fewer crime-solving forces as people gave up low-paying jobs to join the higher-paying military service.

Interior Minister Vladimir Kolokoltsev said in May that there was a shortage of 152,000 officers across Russia, with a quarter of positions vacant in some regions.

That could add to the challenges authorities face in curbing crime as more convicts return to civilian life after the war.

“Like any other veteran, they are likely to suffer from post-traumatic stress disorder,” said Anna Kuleshova, a sociologist at Social Foresight Group. “That combined with previous experiences of incarceration, all of those things combine and can lead to difficulty integrating into society.”