See our predictions for the 2025 Oscar nominations

The first stretch of one of the most unpredictable Oscar races in recent memory is almost over, which means it’s time for our final Oscar nominations predictions for 2025. Anchors The head asserted itself: We have seen AnoraCannes victory, sinisterdominate the box office, Emilia PerezGolden Globe winsAnd conclaveTikTok’s sudden takeover. Industry associations such as the Screen Actors Guild and Directors Guild have weighed in, further raising the profile of competitors such as A complete unknown And sadist, while critics have championed cult works of art since nickel guy ARRIVE All we imagine is light.

Of course, tragic circumstances have also changed the landscape of awards seasons. Forest fires are horrifying and devastating shines brightly across Los Angeles just as Oscar nominations voting officially began, effectively ending the campaign a week early and causing the Academy to extend the deadline for returning ballots by two days — and delaying the announcement. Nominations announced through Sunday, January 19.

With all that chaos, here’s what Vanity fairThe Academy’s Awards Insider team is expected to go live on nomination morning, with predictions for 2025 Oscar nominations in all 20 categories including feature films. We’ll see you Sunday morning to find out if we were right or wrong.

BEST IMAGES

Anora
Felon
A complete unknown
conclave
Sand Dunes: Part Two
Emilia Perez
nickel guy
A real pain
Sing Sing
sinister

About seven of these titles could be certainties. We feel less certain about Dune, Nickel Boys, And Sing Sing. That’s possible sand dunes came out too early in the year, and sinister satisfied the itch to have a studio blockbuster on the list. nickel guy is beloved by critics and has won numerous awards, but it may be both too artistic and too unnoticed to earn a nomination here. Sing Sing once looked like a lock, but it underperformed in the SAG nominations, giving us reason to wonder if it’s losing momentum. If one of those movies doesn’t make the cut, maybe we’ll switch places matter, received a big boost during awards season from Demi Moore‘S profound Golden Globe acceptance speech earlier this month. Crude, physical horror movies don’t do well with the Academy, but Matter deals with an industry-relevant subject, it has the fancy Cannes cachet and its star is a likely frontrunner for best actress. —Richard Lawson

BEST DIRECTOR

Jacques Auditorium, Emilia Perez
Sean Baker, Anora
Edward Berger, conclave
Brady Corbet, Felon
Coralie Fargeat, Matter

At this point, I can say that four of these slots are locked. Sean Baker won the Palme d’Or in May Anora, and seems to have been on a smooth path to this nomination ever since. There have been some misses, but winning the DGA nomination this week seems to have solidified him there. Brady Corbet just won the directing award at the Golden Globes and actually had to give two acceptance speeches that night because Felon also won the award for best television series. He has been successful since winning the directing award in Venice in the fall. French author Jacques Auditorium also won the Globe Award (for best comedy or musical) and Emilia Perez has really accelerated with its Golden Globes win and other recent nominations. While Edward Berger haven’t won as many previous wins as the rest of this group, conclave remains a universally loved film. All four of these directors earned DGA nominations this week, proving that they are favorites in the directing field because there is so much overlap.

So what to do with this fifth slot? In an unexpected turn, A complete unknowndirector of, James Mangold, captured that final DGA spot. While the star of that movie, Timothée Chalamet, has emerged as a strong Oscar contender, it’s unclear whether Mangold will receive the same treatment, but we now know other directors like the film as well. Denis Villeneuve was previously nominated by the DGA but was not nominated for an Oscar for directing Sand Dunes: Part One, so it feels like it’s unlikely that he’ll make it to the Oscars list Sand Dunes: Part Two. There’s a chance RaMell Ross could be on the Oscar list for nickel guy, but that movie is still divisive.

And while the DGA is very good at connecting winners with Oscars, their nomination lists almost never match the Oscar nominations exactly. Over the years, the Academy has chosen to include interesting international directors that the DGA has ignored—like Drive my car‘S Ryusuke Hamaguchi, Another round‘S Thomas Vinterberg, Sad triangle‘S Ruben Östlund, And Anatomy of a fall‘S Justine Triet. That’s why I believe they’ll give the final spot to this year’s most exciting new director (well, new to most of them): Coralie Fargeat of Matter. —Rebecca Ford

best actress

Cynthia Erivo, sinister
Karla Sofia Gascon, Emilia Perez
Mikey Madison, Anora
Demi Moore, Matter
Fernanda Torres, I’m still here

It turns out this is an extremely competitive category. In roughly equal parts, you have Hollywood icons, groundbreaking discoveries, and international actors fighting for what feels like five incredibly small spots—and that’s before we even get to next. sinister, that is coming from a outstanding performance at the SAG awards ceremonywith five nominations. While Ariana Grande has attracted the most attention out of the gate, Cynthia Erivo feel safe for a nomination at this point.