Suella Braverman is certain to be overlooked in the early stages of the Conservative leadership battle.

Good morning. Rachel Reeves will be giving her keynote speech “The Tories have done things, we don’t know what they are, but they are the horrors of the earth” later today.

The big political picture here is that the Labour Party came to power at a time when people were deeply dissatisfied with the state of public services. And as the economy has had a long period of slow growth since the 2007 financial crisis.

When Labour came to power in 1997, they inherited an economy in good shape and a public sector in very bad shape. When the Conservatives came to power in 2010, they inherited public finances in bad shape, an economy still reeling from the financial crisis, but a state in good shape.

In different ways, the governments of Tony Blair and David Cameron were able to use those mixed legacies to push through their desired policies and win re-election. In different ways, Blair and Cameron’s re-election messages in 2001 and 2015 were both “we’ve gone in a different direction. Don’t let them take us back.”

Reeves is try to do a similar trickBut in a situation where she knows that her closing argument at the next election could be the unappealing line “the car is still in the ditch. Don’t give the keys back to the guys who crashed it.”

The effectiveness of that message will depend on many things — including who represents the “those who ruined it,” or, to put it mildly, the Conservative Party. Here are some thoughts on how the Conservative leadership contest is playing out as the field of candidates appears to have settled.

My 10 Conservative MPs will move to another school

Suella Braverman has withdrawn from the Conservative Party leadership race, write an interesting critical article for the Telegraph that although she has enough support to run (to get on the ballot, candidates need 10 parliamentary nominations by today’s deadline), the parliamentary party is so strongly opposed to her that running makes no sense:

While I am grateful to the 10 MPs who have sought to nominate me for leadership, being on the ballot is not enough. For better or worse, there is no point in someone like me running for leadership of the Conservative Party when most MPs do not share my diagnosis and prescription. The traumatised party does not want to hear these things being said. Instead, empty words about “unity” are fashionable. All well and good but dishonest… I have been branded as crazy, evil and dangerous to the point where it seems the Conservative Party does not want to hear the truths I have set out.

Listener FT’s Political Fix podcast It will be no great surprise that this is so. When George Parker asked me to assess the candidates, I said that Braverman was irrelevant because she would not have the votes to stand. John Hayes, a powerful intellectual and organisational figure on the right of the party who had backed her in the last contest, instead backed Robert Jenrick. That almost killed her leadership bid before it had even begun.

Jenrick’s most significant success so far has been that during his time as a rebel MP, he has made himself a natural home for the last Braverman MPs. And as a government minister, he has never strayed from the line of execution – allowing him to retain enough credibility to win at least some support from the centre of the party. He faces a tough road to the finals in the autumn – the top two choices of Conservative MPs will go to a vote of the full party – but I think he is in the right place.

In fact, the congressional stage of the race is not one There are two contests, one on the right of the party and one on the left. Jenrick’s remaining rivals on the right are all carrying wounds of one kind or another. Priti Patel has a formidable outreach operation, supporting candidates in their constituencies, remembering details like birthdays, but she was home secretary when the small boat issue first emerged and that is hard to overcome.

Kemi Badenoch, who announced her bid in the Timeshas very enthusiastic fans. But the problem with running as a truth-teller who isn’t worried about party unity — though she has a point — is that it’s the kind of message that lawmakers often reject in favor of a more moderate.

Jenrick would then have to beat one of his own party members Tom Tugendhat, Mel Stride or James Cleverly, which is no guarantee either, but he is the candidate I would choose at this stage of the contest.

Now try this

I saw Inside out 2 this weekend — I enjoyed it, and thought it was better than the original, a charming coming-of-age film with some great jokes. My partner found it a good but lesser sequel. Danny Leigh was also less complimentary about it than I was in his review, which you can read here.

Today’s Top Stories

• Out of pocket | British ports have Claim compensation from the Labor government if it reaches a deal to reduce trade barriers with the EU, after being forced to spend millions of pounds building post-Brexit border controls.

• Up with bricks | Angela Rayner will be this week Announces a rapid consultation to amend planning rulesas she seeks to deliver 1.5 million homes including “social and affordable housing on a large scale”.

• Can interest rates be cut? | Unexpected strength in UK services inflation has leave the Bank of England meeting on Thursday is hanging by a thread as policymakers weigh whether to push through with the first interest rate cut since 2020.

• Hedging Bets | At least 12 Conservative Party delegates set up consulting companies as the threat of election defeat looms, according to the Guardian’s Rob Davies and Michael Goodier, who have been to Companies House looking for new money-making opportunities that some firms have lined up.