Taiwan under pressure to boost defense in Trump-Harris election race

Taiwan is under increasing pressure to boost its defense capabilities and deter China amid uncertainty surrounding the US election scheduled for November, according to security and policy analysts.

Taiwan’s Foreign Minister, Lin Ka-long, told reporters last month that the self-governing island must defend itself and will likely continue to spend and modernize its military in the face of threats from China, which claims the island as its own.

The minister’s comments came in response to presidential candidate Donald Trump’s suggestion that Taipei must pay Washington for military protectionTrump said the country “didn’t give us anything” and took “100% of our chip business.”

Experts said Trump’s remarks highlighted the unpredictability facing Taiwan, especially after President Joe Biden dropped out of the race and endorsed his vice president, Kamala Harris, who has relatively little foreign policy experience.

Just days after taking office, Trump became the first US president in decades Direct communication with Taiwan‘S chairperson.

Soon after, he proposed that the United States could change long held position that Taiwan is part of “one China”. However, he is believed to have returned to that location. during a call with Chinese President Xi Jinping in February 2016.

Regardless, Trump’s tough stance on China has led many in Taiwan to believe he will significantly support the island, according to Lu-Chung Weng, a political science professor at Sam Houston State University.

Similar to 2016, the candidates running a tough policy towards China and has proposed significantly intensifying the trade war against the country.

Trump 2.0’s tougher stance on containing China will be welcomed by Taiwan’s ruling party and other partners in the Indo-Pacific, according to Muhammad Faizal, a research fellow at the Singapore-based S. Rajaratnam School of International Studies.

However, he added that they were also concerned that Trump’s “shortsighted and transactional approach” to foreign relations and defense – reflected in his comments about Taiwan paying the United States for defense – could lead them back to his geopolitical goals.

Meanwhile, experts interviewed by CNBC agree that a second Trump administration would likely have a lot of Chinese Hawk For those who see defending Taiwan as a top priority, the extent to which they can steer policy remains unclear.

“I think anyone who says they’re sure where [the administration] “The top brass will lose their minds… I think the level of unpredictability will be greater than ever,” said Richard Heydarian, a policy adviser and senior lecturer in international relations at the University of the Philippines.

“I got it [Harris] as a continuation of the general foreign policy trend over the past several decades,” Tina Fordham, founder of Fordham Global Foresight, told CNBC.Global Exchange” last month.

Dewardric McNeal, managing director and senior policy analyst at Longview Global, said it was unclear how Harris would think differently than Biden, given that her first 100 days would be closely watched by Beijing if she wins.

As vice president, Harris has express support for Taiwan And meet with the island’s new leaderLai Ching-te, in 2022. However, she will take office with significantly less foreign policy experience than President Biden.

“While I expected some continuity [with Biden] In her China policy, it is essential to recognize the powerful influence of individuals on policy shaping, formulation and implementation,” McNeal said.

“Vice President Harris is not Joe Biden and her approach to foreign policy will be different,” he added.

Lai, a member of Taiwan’s Democratic Progressive Party, was seen by Beijing as a dissident and has continued his predecessor’s efforts to build relations with Washington amid rising tensions. military and political pressure of China.

His inaugural address stressed the importance of Linking with democracies and strengthening defense. At the same time, a compulsory military service lasting one year The men’s ballot has come into effect, an initiative announced under former DPP chairwoman Tsai Ing-wen.

Meanwhile, Taiwan has increased its total defense spending in its annual budget, with the amount reaching 2.6 percent of GDP this year and expected to increase further by 2025, according to local reports.

The increased defenses have resulted in secure more weapons from the United States As of February this year, the country is waiting for a backlog of worth 19 billion dollars According to the Cato Institute, among the weapons the US has purchased.

A bipartisan delegation of US lawmakers met with Lai in May, promised weapons and $2 billion in an aid package because the Taiwanese army is on its way.

China’s latest official defense budget is $224 billion, about 12 times that of Taiwan, according to a Report from the Council on Foreign Relations.

“Overall, the Taiwanese government and society feel a certain degree of insecurity or anxiety,” said Kwei-Bo Huang, a professor of diplomacy at National Taiwan Chengchi University and secretary-general of the Taiwan-based Association for Foreign Relations.

He added that in the event of a Trump victory, Taiwan is expected to continue expanding its defense budget to at least 3% of GDP, on par with what the former president’s advisers proposed. is reported to be is considering asking NATO members.

While the US election will certainly put more pressure on Taiwan to strengthen its deterrence capabilities, it also benefits the country as it faces harsh realities, according to Professor Lu-Chung of Sam Houston University.

“In terms of self-defense, Taiwan will continue what it is doing, but filling the gap on both sides of the Taiwan Strait is not easy,” he said.

— CNBC’s Zenith Wong contributed to this report.