Tesla’s robotaxi event comes after years of missed deadlines by Elon Musk

With by Tesla hotly anticipated robotaxi event is coming, investors will soon get a glimpse of what CEO Elon Musk called CyberCab.

After a decade of failing to deliver on its promise to deliver autonomous vehicles, capable of traveling reasonable distances safely without a driver, there’s a lot of skepticism about what Tesla can do. in terms of technology and when their robotaxi might actually hit the market.

Robotaxi Day or the “We, Robot” event is scheduled to begin at 7 p.m. PT at the Warner Bros. studio. in Burbank, California and will be broadcast live via X.

Garrett Nelson, an analyst at CFRA, warned in a preview on October 4, that conditions at an enclosed playground on the studio lot could make the Tesla robotaxi look more premium than it did when participating. in normal traffic and on public roads. CFRA has a hold rating on the stock.

Tesla shares fell about 1% on Thursday to $238.77. They are now down nearly 4% on the year and more than 40% below their 2021 record.

This event took place a week after Tesla made the news 3rd quarter delivery was 462,890, bringing this number to 1.35 million this year. For all of last year, Tesla reported deliveries of 1.81 million units.

Bullish analysts at firms including Wedbush, ARK and RBC Capital Markets expressed optimism in their reports about the company’s ability to sustain long-term sales growth, while offers higher-tech products, including long-delayed autonomous vehicles, humanoid robots and other artificial intelligence products. oriented products and services.

Deepwater Asset Management’s Gene Munster told CNBC’s “Fast Money” on Wednesday that he will be at the event and is expected to test the robotaxi.

Munster, a longtime Tesla supporter, said he thinks the company will roll out robotaxis in some cities by the end of 2025. He also expects Tesla to announce plans to produce an affordable electric vehicle , which may just be a shortened version of the Model 3. , and an electric car.

He said that while he expects inventory to decline after the event, it could “hit new highs” in the next two years as deliveries begin to accelerate.

Tesla was once considered a pioneer in autonomous vehicle development but has never provided or demonstrated robotaxi technology. The company is now considered a laggard.

alphabet Waymo in the US and several Chinese companies are currently operating commercial robot taxi services.

If Tesla can launch a “level 4” robotaxi, Morgan Stanley analysts wrote in a report Wednesday, meaning it could operate without a human driver at the wheel, using “a suite of components.” current hardware and software, that will result in a cost-per-mile advantage over peers.

In addition to missing the deadline, Tesla also has safety issues with its driver assistance system, which is currently marketed as standard Autopilot and a premium Full Self-Driving (Supervised) option.

Missy Cummings, a professor at George Mason University and director of the Mason Center for Robotics and Autonomy, said Tesla leaders can say how they solve the problem of so-called “virtual braking,” referring to the Suitable when a vehicle equipped with ADAS suddenly brakes, even when driving at highway speed without surrounding obstacles.

Tesla’s phantom braking problems are the subject of an investigation investigation is ongoing of the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA). “If they can’t solve the problem of phantom braking for class 2 cars, they can’t solve the problem,” Cummings, who previously served as a senior safety adviser to the regulator, told CNBC. That’s for vehicles level 4 or 5″. Level 2 vehicles include driver assistance systems.

According to data monitored by NHTSA Starting in 2021, there have been 1,399 crashes in which the Tesla driver assistance system engaged within 30 seconds of the crash, and 31 of these crashes resulted in reported deaths.

Sam Abuelsamid, an analyst at Guidehouse Insights, said Musk or other Tesla executives can’t say exactly how they plan their vehicles to perform in different weather conditions, such as fog. blind, rain, snow and light or in dark tunnel.

He also wants Tesla executives to say whether they will take full responsibility for the operation of these vehicles, which he calls “a down payment on a truly uninvolved robot taxi.” human control”.

Finally, Abuelsamid wants to know whether Tesla plans to own and operate its robotaxis or lease or sell them to consumers and fleet operators.

“Many companies have made progress in terms of automated driving technology,” Abuelsamid said. “But they have faltered in finding a profitable business model. Tesla has a lot of challenges to overcome and I want to know how to get everything streamlined.”

CLOCK: It will be another 5 years before we see a car like Tesla’s Waymo