The next phase of Israel’s war with Hamas could shift the focus to Hezbollah
The Israeli Prime Minister said the war in the Gaza Strip will soon enter a new phase.
“The tense phase of the war with Hamas is coming to an end,” Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said in a television interview on Sunday. “This does not mean that the war is about to end, but that the war is at a tense stage and is about to end.”
But whatever relief those comments may have brought after more than half a year of horrific bloodshed, Netanyahu quickly made two things clear: A ceasefire in Gaza has not come. And the next war could take place in Lebanon, with the forces of Hezbollah, an ally of Hamas.
After the Gaza withdrawal, he said: “We will be able to move part of our forces north.”
Netanyahu stopped short of declaring an invasion of Lebanon, a move that would have resulted in heavy losses for Israel and Lebanon, and instead left open the possibility of a diplomatic settlement with Hezbollah.
Any diplomatic solution in Gaza remains uncertain, in part because Netanyahu’s coalition would likely collapse if Israel stops fighting in Gaza without removing Hamas from power.
However, the prime minister appeared to be signaling that Israel, after ending its current military campaign in Rafah, Gaza’s southernmost city, would not seek to launch major ground invasions of the cities in central Gaza, the only area of the territory where Israeli troops are present. Do not carry out such attacks.
While Israeli leaders have speaking since January that they are transitioning to a lower-intensity war, the end of the Rafah campaign could allow that process to be completed.
Netanyahu’s remarks and recent comments by Defense Minister Yoav Gallant, who was in Washington on Monday, suggest that the focus of political discussions and Israel’s strategic planning is shifting. to the northern border with Lebanon.
In a statement on Monday, Mr. Gallant’s office said he had discussed with American officials “the transition to ‘Phase C’ in Gaza and its impact on the region, including Lebanon and other regions.”
Early in the war, Mr. Gallant outlined a three-phase battle plan that included intense air strikes against Hamas targets and infrastructure; a phase of ground operations aimed at “eliminating pockets of resistance”; and the third phase, or Phase C, will create “a new security reality for the Israeli people.”
Since October, Israel has been in a low-level conflict with Hezbollah that has displaced hundreds of thousands of civilians on both sides of the border. However, the war has been overshadowed by the larger war in Gaza.
The change in tone over the weekend could be a harbinger of a major escalation between Hezbollah and Israel.
Israeli officials have warned for months that they could invade Lebanon if Hezbollah, the powerful Iran-backed militia that dominates southern Lebanon, does not withdraw its forces from near the country’s border. Hezbollah also threatened to invade Israel.
However, the reduction in fighting in Gaza may finally create space for de-escalation of the conflict on the Lebanese border. Hezbollah entered the war in October in solidarity with Hamas, and its leadership has indicated that it could end the campaign if the war in Gaza ends.
Here are four ways a shift in Israel’s stance on Gaza could take place.
1. Gaza raids, but smaller
Once the Israeli operation in Rafah ends in the coming weeks, the military is expected to focus on hostage rescue operations across the Gaza Strip, like the one that just occurred. rescue 4 Israelis in early June and killed dozens of Palestinians.
Military officials also said they would continue to rapidly raid neighborhoods they captured in the earlier stages of the war, aiming to prevent Hamas militants from regaining too much strength in those areas. there.
Samples for that type of activity include Israel’s returned to Al-Shifa hospital in Gaza City in March, four months after the first raid or three-week operation in May Jabaliyawhich Israeli forces also captured for the first time in November.
2. Power vacuum in Gaza
By withdrawing from much of Gaza without ceding power to an alternative Palestinian leader, Israel could essentially allow Hamas’s leaders to maintain their rule over the crumbling enclave, at least especially at the present time.
Maybe by attacking Gaza regularly, the Israeli military could prevent Hamas from returning to its former strength – but that would prolong a power vacuum in which major clans and gangs compete for influence with Hamas . That vacuum will make it even more difficult to rebuild Gaza, distribute aid and alleviate people’s suffering.
Israel is expected to retain control of Gaza’s border with Egypt to prevent arms smuggling there. It is expected that this force will also continue to occupy the strip of land separating northern and southern Gaza, preventing free movement between the two areas.
3. War with Hezbollah or reduce tensions
By sending more troops to the northern border, the Israeli army will be in a better position to invade Lebanon so it can force Hezbollah fighters away from Israeli territory.
But a military buildup there could provoke more rocket attacks from Hezbollah, increasing the likelihood of miscalculation leading to all-out war. Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah warned last week that the group could invade Israel and the risk of escalation appears to be closer than in previous months.
At the same time, Israel’s announcement that it is moving to a new phase in Gaza could also set the scene for a reduction in tensions. Less fighting in Gaza could force Hezbollah to retreat. In February, Mr. Nasrallah said his group would stop shooting “when the shooting stops in Gaza.”
A period of relative calm along the Lebanese border could also prompt displaced Israelis to return home. That would ease pressure on the Israeli government to take tougher action against Hezbollah. One of the main reasons why Israeli leaders considered invading Lebanon was to create conditions to persuade displaced Israelis to return to their homeland.
4. Tensions continue with the Biden administration
By announcing the withdrawal of troops in Gaza, Netanyahu reduced one source of friction with President Biden, but maintained others.
Mr. Biden has criticized Israel’s conduct of the war, even as his administration continues to fund Israel and supply it with weapons. A less destructive war in Gaza would leave little room for debate with Washington over Israel’s military strategy.
But Netanyahu’s refusal to present a clear plan for post-war management of Gaza, as well as the lingering possibility of an Israeli invasion of Lebanon, have created many opportunities for disagreement with Washington.
The Biden administration wants the war with Hezbollah to end, and for months it has pressed Netanyahu to hand power to an alternative Palestinian leadership in Gaza. But Netanyahu has kept Gaza’s future ambiguous, amid pressure from his right-wing coalition partners for Israeli occupation and resettlement of the territory.
