Trump’s territorial ambitions shake a weary world

When Donald J. Trump returned victorious to the White House, many countries thought they knew what to expect and how to prepare for what was to come.

Diplomats in capitals around the world said they would focus on what his administration does rather than what Mr. Trump says. Larger countries have developed plans to reduce or counter his threat of punitive tariffs. Smaller nations hope they can simply hide from the storm of another four years of America First.

But the world is finding it increasingly difficult to keep calm and carry on.

At a news conference Tuesday at Mar-a-Lago, Mr. Trump refused to rule out the use of force in potential land grabs in Greenland and the Panama Canal. He vowed to change the name of the Gulf of Mexico to “Gulf of America.” He also said he could use “economic power” to turn Canada into the 51st state because of America’s national security issues.

To those eager to parse the content from the braggadocio, it looked like another display of liberal bravado: Trump II, the sequel, was more unrestrained. Even before taking office, Mr. Trump with his surprising wish list caused a stir in public opinion “there it is again” comments from around the world.

Behind the conversation, however, are serious stakes. As the world prepares for Trump’s return, the parallels between his concerns and the long-ago period of American imperialism in the late 19th century are becoming more relevant.

Mr. Trump has championed the era for his protectionism, claiming that the United States in the 1890s “was probably the wealthiest country ever because it was a tariff system.” Now, he seems to be adding a focus from the 19th and early 20th centuries about territorial control.

What both eras shared was the fear of geopolitical instability and the risk of being driven out of territory of great economic and military importance. As Daniel Immerwahr, an American historian at Northwestern University, puts it: “We are witnessing a return to a more engaging world.”

For Mr. Trump, China looms large — in his view, ready to take over territory far from its own borders. He falsely accused Beijing of controlling the US-built Panama Canal. There is also the specter, more grounded in reality, of China and its ally Russia moving to secure control of Arctic sea lanes and precious minerals.

At the same time, competition is increasing everywhere, as some countries (India, Saudi Arabia) rise and others (Venezuela, Syria) reel and struggle, creating opportunities for influence. benefit from outside.

During the 1880s and 1890s, there was also a struggle for control and there was no one dominant state. As nations become more powerful, they are expected to grow materially, and competition is redrawing the map and causing conflicts from Asia to the Caribbean.

The United States mirrored Europe’s colonial plans when it annexed Guam and Puerto Rico in 1898. But in larger countries, such as the Philippines, the United States eventually chose to exert indirect control by negotiating agreements to promote incentives for American businesses and their military interests.

Some believe Trump’s focus on Greenland, the Panama Canal and even Canada is a revival of the debate about one man’s expansionist goals.

“This is part of a pattern of the United States exercising control or attempting to control areas of the world deemed to be of U.S. interest without having to invoke the dreaded words ’empire,'” colonization’ or ‘imperialism’, while still says Ian Tyrrell, a historian of the American empire at the University of New South Wales in Sydney, Australia.

Mr. Trump’s threats to seize territory may simply be a transactional starting point or some kind of personal desire. The United States has an agreement with Denmark that allows for basing operations in Greenland.

His proposal for Americanization there and elsewhere amounts to what many foreign diplomats and scholars see as an escalation rather than a break with the past. For years, the United States has tried to contain China’s ambitions with a familiar playbook.

The Philippines is once again in the spotlight, with new agreements on bases that the US military could use in any potential war with Beijing. The sea routes are most important for trade both in Asia and around the Arctic as climate change melts ice and makes travel easier.

“What the United States has always wanted is access to markets, lines of communication and the ability to project material power forward,” Professor Tyrrell said.

But for some regions in particular, the past as prologue causes fear.

Panama and its neighbors tend to see Mr. Trump’s comments as a blend of the 1890s and 1980s, when the Cold War prompted Washington to intervene in many Latin American countries under the guise of fighting Communism. The Monroe Doctrine, another 19th-century creation that saw the United States consider the Western Hemisphere its exclusive sphere of influence, has re-emerged in connection with tariffs and territorial agreements.

Carlos Puig, a prominent journalist in Mexico City, said Latin America is more worried about Trump’s return than any other region in the world.

“Here is Trump, with majorities in both chambers, after four years of complaining, a man who only cares about himself and winning at all costs,” Mr. Puig said. “It’s not easy for someone like that not to show that he’s trying to keep his promises, no matter how crazy they are. I’m not sure everything was just bullying and almost humorous provocations.”

But how much can Mr. Trump actually gain or lose?

His press conference in Florida mixed vague threats (“Maybe you will have to do something”) with messianic promises (“I’m talking about defending the free world ”).

It was more than enough to awaken other countries, attracting attention and passionate protests even before he took office.

French Foreign Minister Jean-Noël Barrot on Wednesday warned against threatening the country’s “sovereign borders.” European Union — refers to the Danish territory of Greenland. He added that “we have entered an era that sees the return of the law of the strongest”.

What may be less visible at Mar-a-Lago is much discussed in foreign capitals: Many countries are simply fed up with the America that Mr. Trump wants to make great again.

Although the United States remains a dominant force, it has less leverage than it did in the 1980s or 1890s, not only because of China’s rise but also because of what many countries see as America’s fall. into dysfunction and debt, along with an increase in the growth of other countries.

The international system that the United States helped establish after World War II prioritized trade in the hope of deterring aggression — and it worked well enough to build paths to prosperity that made unilateralism America becomes less effective.

As Sarang Shidore, director of the global south program at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Governance in Washington, explains, many developing countries are “more knowledgeable, more assertive and more capable even as the United States become more unpredictable and stable.

In other words, the world is unstable today. The postwar balance is being shaken by wars in Europe and the Middle East; by the autocratic partnership of China, Russia and North Korea; by a weakened Iran seeking nuclear weapons; and by climate change and artificial intelligence.

The late 19th century was also full of turmoil. According to historians, the mistake Mr. Trump may be making today is thinking that the world can be more peaceful and simplified with more real estate in the US.

The imperialist, protectionist era that Mr. Trump seems to be romanticizing has exploded as Germany and Italy try to grab a larger share of the world market. The result was two world wars.

“We saw how that played out with 20th-century weaponry,” said Mr. Immerwahr, author of “How to Hide an Empire: A Concise History of the Greater United States.” “It has the potential to be much more dangerous on the 21st.”