Ukrainian forces seek to hold Russian positions after capturing hundreds of soldiers
Ukrainian forces sought to consolidate their gains on newly captured Russian territory on Tuesday after capturing hundreds of Russian soldiers as Kyiv’s brazen offensive entered its second week.
The surprise attack quickly achieved significant successes in the Kursk region, embarrassing President Vladimir Putin and boosting the morale of a war-weary army that had been fighting nonstop for the past year.
Deep State, a Ukrainian analysis group that works closely with the Defense Ministry, said the country’s forces had “entered Sudzha and captured Guyevo… and were fully entrenched in Goncharovka.”
On Monday, Ukrainian soldiers filmed themselves tearing down a Russian flag from an administrative building in Guyevo, about 3km from the Kursk region.
Ukraine has also captured hundreds of Russian soldiers, according to videos released by military brigades and verified by the FT, to keep as prisoners of war who could be exchanged for their troops held in Russia. A series of such exchanges have taken place.
President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Monday expressed gratitude to “every entity that replenished the exchange fund for us, for Ukraine.”
“Russia went to war with another country, and now they are coming back,” he said, suggesting that the offensive would strengthen Ukraine’s position in any potential talks with Russia to end the war.
Russia’s Defense Ministry said on Tuesday that it had hit Ukrainian forces with airstrikes, drone attacks and artillery fire, preventing them from advancing further into the Kursk region. It also claimed that it had repelled a Ukrainian attack east of Sudzha and that it had “cleared” a Ukrainian-occupied village. The claims could not be independently verified.
Moscow has confirmed it launched artillery strikes on what it said were military targets in Ukraine, in an attempt to deter further deployments. Russia claims more than 2,000 Ukrainian soldiers were killed in the invasion — although it says only half of those were part of the initial assault.
Russian bloggers close to the military posted videos on Telegram, later verified by the FT and open-source analysts, showing Russian forces flying explosive-laden first-person view (FPV) drones into Ukrainian armoured fighting vehicles and personnel carriers.
In a video, the Russian military celebrated capturing a Ukrainian BTR-4 infantry fighting vehicle.
Ukraine’s top general said on Monday that the territory held by his troops had expanded to 1,000 square kilometers. Deep State said on Tuesday it had confirmed 800 square kilometers under Ukrainian control, with an additional 230 square kilometers yet to be verified. But it said its information “may ultimately differ from the testimony of direct participants.” [involved] in events”.
On Tuesday, a senior Russian military officer claimed, without providing evidence, that Moscow forces were retaking areas held by Ukraine.
Apti Alaudinov, commander of the Akhmat special forces unit from Chechnya, said “the situation in the Kursk region is under control” and Russia is “clearing out settlements where the enemy still hides”, according to state news agency RIA Novosti.
The challenge for Ukraine’s leaders now is to decide whether the potential benefits of continuing the advance justify the risks of deploying urgently needed troops and resources on the eastern front, where Russia has made steady gains.
Andriy Zagorodnyuk, a former defense minister and president of the Center for Defense Strategy, a Kyiv think tank, said Ukraine should “either continue to press or hold” the territory it has captured, “depending on the risks” that are being constantly assessed.
Kyiv’s operation was unprecedented in Russia’s 10-year war with Ukraine, and marked the largest foreign incursion into Russia since German troops entered during World War II.
The scale of Russia’s security failure has prompted rare and frank discussions in Moscow. Alexei Smirnov, governor of the Kursk region, told Putin on Monday that Ukraine now controlled 28 settlements after advancing 12km across a 40km-wide border.
Putin abruptly interrupted him, saying that this was a military matter and ordering him to focus on the “socio-economic situation.”
Zelenskyy said on Monday the operation was also designed to blunt continued Russian attacks on Ukraine’s neighboring Sumy region, including drone strikes on Monday night.
Western military aid has flowed more steadily to Ukraine’s frontline units since a long-delayed $60 billion aid package was approved by the US Congress in April, but Ukraine’s military remains outgunned and outnumbered by Russia.
In eastern Ukraine, Russian forces have closed dangerously close to the garrison city of Pokrovsk and the strategic towns of Chasiv Yar, Toretsk and New York.
The Deep State’s frontline map shows much of New York under Russian control as of Tuesday. Ukrainian soldiers who fought there before the Kursk operation told the FT they expected New York to fall in the coming days.
In the Donetsk region, the battle for Kursk took place with mixed emotions of joy and disappointment.
“I am glad that our guys succeeded in Kursk,” said a senior Ukrainian officer on the front line in the Donetsk region. “We are still fighting hard here. I hope [our commander-in-chief] Syrsky remembers this.”
Frontline fighters say one of the goals of the operation is to force Moscow to divert resources from its offensive in the Donetsk region to Kursk, but so far there is little sign that this goal has been achieved.
Russia is believed to have moved some forces from occupied southern Ukraine. The Kremlin has characterized its response as an “anti-terrorist operation” led by the FSB, the KGB’s main successor, and the Rosgvardia national guard, along with the army. That points to discontent among hard-line Kremlin supporters over the military’s failures.
Russian state media has released video of heavy armored vehicles being transported to Kursk, but it appears they were not taken from eastern Ukraine.
Mykola Bielieskov, a research fellow at the Institute for National Strategic Studies, part of Ukraine’s military policy department, said Russia could be considering one of two approaches, “just to stabilize the front [in Kursk region] or regain all lost territory”.
“If it is [the] The second scenario is that it can force [the] redeployment of Russian troops from the Donetsk region,” Bielieskov added.
Ukrainian officials and experts say it is too early to withdraw from Kursk. Zagorodnyuk said he expected Ukrainian forces to try to push deeper into Russia.
“I suspect they will advance a little further somewhere while the Russians are still moving their troops. “But the next stage will be positioning,” he added, predicting that Kyiv may soon consider which areas can be kept under its control and best defended.