Vulnerable time for Europe as the clock ticks down for Joe Biden
US President Joe Biden’s state visit to Germany on Friday was extremely brief.
But the US President used every minute in Berlin to try to make clear that he still has big ambitions on the world stage, in the final weeks before he leaves office in January. Especially in the Middle East and Ukraine.
European defense is a cornerstone of Biden’s foreign policy – in sharp contrast to the policy of his predecessor Donald Trump, now a promising presidential candidate in 2024.
In recognition of his efforts, German President Frank-Walter Steinmeier awarded Biden his country’s highest honor, the special class of Grand Cross.
The conflict in Ukraine, since Russia’s full-scale invasion, is the worst war the continent has seen since World War II.
And as it did 80 years ago, Europe has looked to America for coordinated leadership and military support.
But Biden insisted more needs to be done: “We must keep moving forward until Ukraine wins a just and lasting peace… We must maintain our support.”
A lot will depend on who wins the November US election.
Europe has relied on US military aid to help Ukraine. Berlin is the second largest donor after Washington, although the volume of funding is insignificant compared to its allies across the Atlantic.
The days of American generosity are expected to end as soon as Biden leaves the White House.
Even if Democratic candidate Kamala Harris becomes the next US president, Congress is expected to likely turn to other foreign policy priorities, such as China and Taiwan.
For Trump, during his 2016-2020 administration, the relationship with NATO – the transatlantic military alliance established since World War 2 – was notoriously chaotic.
He is known to admire “strong man” Russian President Vladimir Putin and he has yet to say in public whether he wants Kyiv to win the conflict.
Despite much talk in the corridors of NATO circles about an “anti-Trump” European defense system ahead of the upcoming US election, there is little sign that it has actually happened or that Europe Au will be able to “go it alone” successfully if he has to.
Following Russia’s full-scale invasion in 2022, German Chancellor, Olaf Scholz, promises a “Zeitenwende”, a historical turning point where his country would overcome the shadow of its Nazi past and invest massively in its military to contribute fully to the common defense of its allies.
This week, German intelligence chiefs warned that Russia’s continued investment in its military would give it the ability to attack NATO by the end of the decade.
But Germany’s military reform plan has become bogged down in bureaucracy. The government has not even agreed on the future defense budget.
Diplomats say Biden is worried about Europe’s resolve, with signs of spreading “Ukraine fatigue” as allies in Europe grapple with their own domestic challenges.
Scholz is under significant pressure at home from the popular far right and far left, both sympathetic to Russia’s story, ahead of next year’s general election.
On Friday, Scholz and Biden were in Berlin alongside Ukraine’s major donors Britain and France.
The “Quad,” as these four NATO powers are known, also discussed Iran and the broader Middle East region. Regarding Ukraine, their joint press statement reiterated their determination to continue supporting Kiev.
British Prime Minister, Sir Keir Starmer, said Russia is getting weaker and the war is consuming 40% of Moscow’s budget.
He said he and other leaders discussed “additional capacity, additional equipment and additional resources” they could help Ukraine with. But he did not go into specifics.
However, those were the specifics that Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky requested in his text. “winning plan”. Specific details such as a formal invitation to join NATO and free use of long-range missiles were provided by Britain and France. One request has so far been denied.
Critics of Joe Biden and his NATO allies accuse them of constantly procrastinating for fear of escalation with Russia.
Kyiv – and Moscow – will closely follow Biden’s “farewell trip” to Berlin this Friday.
They will hear repeated assurances from the four NATO powers of continued and steadfast support for Ukraine – but what they will also see is a departing US president, a prime minister Germany is expected to lose the general election in his country, and a French President hobbled politically at home.
For Ukraine, further help from its biggest backers cannot come fast enough. Fighting Russia on its own front line, the country is at a particularly vulnerable moment. The same goes for the rest of Europe.
