What’s at stake in the first presidential debate?

When Donald Trump and Joe Biden take the debate stage on Thursday night, it will be a reunion of sorts – though not exactly a friendly one.

A sitting president has never debated his predecessor, and the discord between the two will be evident on CNN’s debate stage in Atlanta.

Trump never conceded to President Biden on the 2020 election, and days after his supporters attacked the US Capitol, he broke with tradition by refusing to attend his rival’s inauguration.

The two men are now facing off again for president, and this debate will mark the first time this election campaign that millions of Americans sat up and took notice.

The stakes are high and the tension in the room will be higher than in past debates as both men try to convince American voters that they deserve to vote in November.

Thursday’s debate will also mark the first time Joe Biden and Donald Trump have appeared together since their debate four years ago. The first meeting in 2020 was a testy affair, punctuated by constant interruptions and Mr. Biden’s frustrated “Will you shut up, man?” request.

At the start of the second debate that year, delayed by Trump’s Covid diagnosis, the two men didn’t even shake hands.

This time, neither man practiced. Neither has participated in any debates in nearly four years, as Trump skipped the Republican primary debates on his way to becoming the party’s presumptive nominee earlier this year.

Incumbent presidents often appear blunt in their opening reelection debates — a common explanation is that they are weak or unaccustomed to being challenged after four years in the White House bubble. However, in this case, both candidates could face that challenge.

Unlike previous debates, this one will be conducted in a cable TV studio without a live audience cheering — or groaning. That’s the claim of the Biden campaign, which was reportedly concerned after a rowdy Trump town hall forum hosted by CNN last year.

The debate will also have muted microphones for the candidates during their opponents’ allotted speaking time, which could prevent the debate from descending into the chaos that characterized the Trump-Biden debate first in 2020. But it could also make this edition a less memorable affair.

If he only listened to conservative commentators, President Biden would be lucky to get through the debate without falling asleep, freezing, or walking around the stage confused.

The Republican Party, from Trump on down, has portrayed the president as old and infirm, the same man he once was.

While these attacks tap into genuine voter concerns about the octogenarian president’s longevity in office, they also set a low bar for Mr. Biden’s performance — an expectation he has surpassed in the past, including with his energetic State of the Union speech in early March.

Trump campaign officials have recently tried to raise that bar higher, noting that Mr. Biden proved himself very effective in the 2012 vice presidential debate with then-Congressman Paul Ryan. They also questioned the CNN debate host’s impartiality.

“Will CNN decide whether they are a facilitator or will CNN become a participant?” Trump campaign manager Chris LaCivita asked on Tuesday.

Trump and his campaign also spread claims that Mr. Biden would need to rely on unspecified “performance-enhancing drugs” during the debate. This view has been vehemently denied by President Biden’s team, but the seeding of such rumors could form the basis for post-debate excuses if the president defeats his predecessor on Thursday.

Biden campaign spokeswoman Lauren Hitt said the former president is resorting to “lies” because he is “afraid of being held accountable for his toxic agenda.”

However, President Biden may not be the only one with a chance to defy expectations. Democrats have warned for more than a year that Trump is obsessed with revenge and retribution, and that he is an ambitious dictator and an existential threat to democracy American owner.

Biden campaign officials have said that Trump was “broken” after his loss in the 2020 election and was a different man than the Americans elected in 2016.

If the former president can stay calm for 90 minutes and soften some of his sharp edges, it might help him convince the American public that dire warnings about Trump’s possible second term were overblown.

“Biden has to prove that the notion that he is too old to do this job is not the case,” Mike Murphy, a longtime Republican political consultant, told Americast, the BBC’s podcast on US politics. true”.

“Trump has to prove that he is not the unlikable lunatic that half the country thinks he is. So this is an opportunity for both – but the risks are also very high.”

Going into this debate, polls showed that voters gave Trump higher marks on the economy and immigration – two of the top issues for American voters.

Meanwhile, the president is favored on abortion, health care and the environment.

The winner of Thursday night’s debate may be the candidate who can deliver the most memorable statements about his strengths while defending his weaknesses.

Can President Biden convince voters that he shares their concerns about rising immigration but has been stymied by Republicans in trying to address it? Will former President Trump seek to convince voters another term won’t lead to greater restrictions on abortion — especially as he appoints three Supreme Court justices who voted to overturn federal procedural rights?

Mr. Biden has been trying for more than a year to convince the American public that the economy is better than they think. He will have the opportunity to present that case again to an audience of tens of millions, but he will have to do so in the face of what are sure to be weakening attacks from his opponents. his opponents, who are expected to focus on soaring prices. and the high inflation that Americans have endured in recent years.

“We know that Joe Biden is going to try to blame everything on President Trump,” Trump campaign spokesman Jason Miller told reporters Tuesday.

He added: “Americans know the difference between the Trump economy, which is great, where everyone works better, and the Biden economy.”

Last week, Biden’s campaign released a series of new ads directly attacking Trump for his recent criminal conviction in a New York court.

Recent polls have shown that the guilty verdict has cost Donald Trump the support of independent voters, who could prove decisive in this election.

There is little doubt that Trump will be asked about the history-making trial at the debate and that President Biden will be ready to attack. If the former president becomes embroiled in a tirade against corrupt judges and rigged courts, it could further alienate moderate voters.

“If they can get Trump to burn the mic like a madman in defense of neurosis, that’s a very good debate,” Mr. Murphy said.

Meanwhile, President Biden has a separate case to deal with. His son Hunter’s conviction on felony gun charges also made history, and the president — although not involved in the case — was emotionally invested in its outcome.

Trump may have some criticism of Hunter Biden, if not about the gun case then about his upcoming tax evasion trial, which could reveal controversial details about his business dealings. Biden is younger. Trump will likely try to cast Hunter Biden’s conviction as evidence of widespread corruption within what he calls the “Biden crime family.”

This was the earliest presidential debate in modern US history – held before either candidate became his party’s official nominee. That means the face-off could set the mood and gauge for the upcoming campaign, solidify some loose views on the candidates and better define the issues and interests surrounding them. vote in November.

But barring a truly catastrophic mistake by one of the candidates, the early timing could mean that when Election Day comes, this June event will be a distant memory for Most Americans only follow politics sporadically.

Both candidates will have a chance to reset and rebuild from any damage in their closely scripted national conventions, which take place later in the summer. Then there will be another debate scheduled for September that could wipe voters’ memories this week.

That’s a reality that a senior Biden campaign aide, speaking to the BBC’s media partner CBS, acknowledged.

“The debate in June is not a time when we expect to determine the trajectory of the election or change the vote count in the near term,” the adviser said, adding that voters will need “time and consistent effort.”

In other words, this debate is the beginning of a marathon, not the end of the race.