Modi’s BJP-led coalition won narrower than expected

Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi raises his inked finger after casting his vote at a polling booth in Ranip, Ahmedabad on May 7, 2024.

Sajjad Hussain | Afp | beautiful images

The National Democratic Alliance is led by the Bharatiya Janata Party preparing to take power in India again – although with a much reduced majority, according to the latest data from Election Commission of India.

The BJP-led NDA leads with nearly 290 seats in parliament, while the opposition Indian National Inclusive Development Alliance (INDIA), led by the Indian National Congress, is leading with 230 seats, according to local media.

The BJP-led National Democratic Alliance won 353 seats in 2019. If this number holds, the BJP will lose around 60 seats compared to its 2019 general election total of 303 seats.

The lower house of the Indian parliament has 543 seats, and the party or coalition that wins at least 272 seats forms the government.

Samir Kapadia, CEO of India Index and chief executive officer of Vogel Group, said: “People in India are eager to see Minister Modi in power again. And I think the pressure is on him more than ever.” “He will continue to build India the way Indians want to see it.”

Modi according to the report said in March that he was confident the BJP-led NDA would secure over 400 seats.

Yamini Aiyar, former president of the New Delhi-based Center for Policy Research, said: “While Prime Minister Modi remains a popular figure, the luster has faded as the realities of everyday life have faded. about unemployment, inflation and governance are dominating voters’ minds.” CNBC’s “Asian Street Signs”.

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According to an April survey conducted by the Center for Social and Development Research, unemployment is the top concern of 27% of the 10,000 people surveyed. More than half (62%) of respondents said finding a job has become more difficult over the past five years of Modi’s second term.

The unemployment rate in the world’s most populous country rose to 8.1% in April from 7.4% in March, according to data from the United States. Center for Monitoring Indian Economy.

“It remains to be seen whether Modi can attract the kind of labour-intensive jobs India needs today,” said Atman Trivedi, partner and South Asia leader at Albright Stonebridge Group.

Indian benchmark index Convenience 50 And BSE Sensex down 8% as trends suggest the BJP may not achieve a clear majority.

Market heavyweights Adani Ports and Adani Enterprises both fell more than 20%, while State Bank of India and ICICI Bank fell 17% and nearly 9%, respectively.

On Monday, both Nifty and Sensex hit record highs and registered their best intraday gains since February 1, 2021, rising 3.25% and 3.39% respectively, after the polls Polls over the weekend predicted Modi’s BJP would win a majority.

The Indian rupee weakened 0.31% on Tuesday after gaining 0.41% on Monday.

Modi’s decades-long rule

Under Mr. Modi, India, home to 1.4 billion people, has seen strong economic growth. The fastest growing economy the world has seen it GDP increased by 8.2% in fiscal year 2024.

The Project of the International Monetary Fund that the Indian economy will grow 6.8% in 2024 and 6.5% in 2025, compared to China’s growth outlook of 4.6% in 2024 and 4.1% in 2025 .

Kapadia emphasized: “Prime Minister Modi will have to show his strength against opponents like China. That will involve signaling support for domestic defense manufacturing capabilities.”

inside BJP Manifesto In his upcoming term, Mr. Modi said that the government will make India one of the top three economies in the world, actively fight poverty, open new paths for growth and fight corruption.

“We have gone from being a country in the ‘Year of Fragility’ to being one of the top five economies in the world,” he said in the manifesto.

While India has seen strong economic growth under Modi, observers and critics have warned of the country’s ‘democratic decline’.

“The ruling anti-pluralist, Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) led by Prime Minister Modi has used sedition, defamation and anti-terrorism laws to silence critics.” quote,” V-Dem Institute is headquartered in Sweden said in a 2024 report.

However, others have pointed to the country’s massive election exercise as a testament to the country’s strong democratic foundations.

“The election also shined a light on India as a rising star built on democracy, and I am glad that it is drawing so much attention to all the dynamic growth that we are seeing in this country today.” Dorson, senior portfolio manager and head of emerging markets strategy at Global X ETFs.

— CNBC’s Sumathi Bala contributed to this story.

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